[deschutes]

It's not the same. You expect that the other team will score with so many possessions remaining.

And when they do, they will be able to capitalize on the information gained from your 2 point attempt.

In terms of expected value, 2 point conversion attempts are roughly par with extra points, though with so few scoring events in the game you would expect large variance.

So outside of scenarios where it is pure upside (1 point doesn't matter without many more scoring events) teams will opt for the lower variance outcome. This matches practice pretty well IME.

[dgfitz]

> It's not the same. You expect that the other team will score with so many possessions remaining.

If Baltimore special teams doesn't let a punt return TD happen, Houston had one FG to their name... the entire game.

I don't expect a team will always score, absolutely not a team playing against one of the best defenses in football history. So, I respectfully disagree with your thesis. :)

[wavemode]

You may not personally expect it, sitting on the sidelines. But the people on the field do have to expect it. They can't make sound strategic decisions while operating under an assumption that the opposing team will never score a touchdown.