[canes123456]

I am a self driving skeptic but seems like a good bet for Carmack. I would expect Waymo to open up to consumers before 2030 in SF, even if more expensive and take way longer than a normal car. It could be little more than a tech demo and he would still win the bet.

[fragmede]

Waymo's already open in SF and Phoenix, with LA and San Antonio to come, and it's only 2024.

There's a wait-list you have to join, but anyone can download the app and get in line.

[aantix]

Why is Waymo so slow to roll out?

Pick an optimal path for each metro, only operate on good weather days, roll out nationally.

[dzdt]

The major companies that have tried to go faster than Waymo have been destroyed by safety incidents (Uber, Cruise). Waymo's caution may be well-warrented.

[aantix]

Destroyed seems a bit harsh. Tesla is moving forward.

FSD12 appears to be a major advancement. https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1750448446790922634

[rob74]

Because they're careful? Especially after the recent Cruise debacle - SF is relatively friendly to their efforts, and once they can point to a few years of problem-free operation in SF, other cities might allow them in, but trying to expand the service too early could prove a very costly mistake if a major issue is found and they get thrown out again...

[nemothekid]

>Why is Waymo so slow to roll out?

Ignoring the safety path, this other issue just scale. Manufacturing the cars would be a big problem. Getting a ton of them on the road is another. I wonder if all those sensors that the car uses could ramp up to a national level in a year.

I've been in the Waymo beta for a couple months now. At peak times, it's more expensive and slower than an Uber simply because there aren't enough cars on the road.

[bryanlarsen]

I doubt that fees are quite covering expenses yet. I expect they'll roll out quite a bit quicker once expansion decreases their losses rather than increasing it.

[troupo]

you've just eliminated a lot of useful use cases. Who needs a car/service that only drives a limited set of "optimal routes" in good weather?

Also, "optimal routes" tend to quickly become suboptimal due to traffic, road closures etc.

[iknowstuff]

I was like wtf are they talking about I’ve been using self driving cars for half a year

[fragmede]

John carmack's won the bet, 6 years early.

[masto]

It's rather more than a tech demo already.

https://youtu.be/P6sw4EKegp4?si=Yafm5a-ufCGizumy