[tety]

I think it is completely within Israel's ability to dismantle most of Hamas fighting force, and then manage the Gaza Strip similarly to the West Bank. Failing to do so might bring about the scenarios you are talking about, which is the tragedy of those that scream genocide too prematurely. As done in all previous wars with Hamas, the international crowd has called what was happening genocide although it clearly wasn't, thereby pressuring Israel to stop, enabling worse and worse wars in the future and more civilian deaths.

I completely agree though that a lack of a two state solution will lead to catastrophe for either people or both eventually. However, I do not share your pessimism about US/Israel regional prospects. Remember that this is mainly due to self-inflicted restraints, which is how asymmetric warfare really works. As seen in September 11 in the US and October 7 in Israel this can change rapidly when faced with an external threat

[maxglute]

They can manage Gaza like Westbank, but that's settling for two powderkegs. Same with comparison to US post 911 actions. It's buying time, which currently is best of bad options, but IMO blowback will come. Pessimism personally warranted in medium/long term time frames. US been trying to draw down from CENTOM for years, and newer gen who will take over politics are expessing less alignment with Israel. I don't think it's self-inflicted restraints as much as geopolitically inflicted - there's upper limit to what Israel can do before it fucks up things irrevocably for US geopolitical interests with others in the region. Long term, Israel is still a small country without sufficient human capita to maintain high end asymmetric war fighting across domains alone (i.e. aviation). Long term I think US constitutents and politicians will attach more and more strings to Israeli behaviour.