[zakki]

I guess I can see where the parent thinking you replied came from. If the life formed by randomness, according to this old Discovery video[1], it defies law of probability.

If each step from simple to complexity is using this randomness evolution, it will be more and more defies law of probability.

Wikipedia said earth had water 4.4B year ago. The first cell formed 3.8B years ago. This PBS video[2] said multicellular life emerged 1B years ago. Other source said 1.7B years ago. And then the first modern human appeared around 300 thousands years ago. So the question is: is 700M-1400M years enough time for the probability to create human?

[1] https://youtu.be/z2_-h3I_WXQ

[2] https://youtu.be/0TgKW-dj-wo

[deadbeeves]

There are crappy combination padlocks that can be picked by turning the combination wheels and pulling on the shackle. When you've turned a wheel into its unlocking position the shackle will shift open slightly, signalling that you've cracked that digit. So a padlock with 3 digits could be opened in at most 30 moves, instead of 1000.

When you have a selection mechanism, the randomness of mutations becomes kind of moot. Each step of the way that produces a new adaptation only has a handful of optimal (or optimal-enough) solutions. Now, suppose that we're an underwater species that's in the process of developing light-sensitive cells, and from our present genome there are 2^64 possible genes that will produce a good protein for the transduction step (of converting light into some other form of energy). Do we need to mutate 2^64 times to find the "correct" gene? No, all of those 2^64 genes are "correct". Our descendants should not fall into the trap of thinking that because they got gene #5541741487894936799 that it was a special outcome. They could have just as easily gotten gene #5541741556614413535.

[ceejayoz]

> If the life formed by randomness, according to this old Discovery video[1], it defies law of probability.

Evolution is not random. The mutations that make it possible are, but natural selection makes it a non-random process.

If you make a random number generator, but keep more of the odd numbers, you'll get a non-random result set.