[eropple]

Right, this is exactly why I'm confused about the all-is-lost framing of this. $12K isn't nothing. It's a pretty shitty thing to have drop on you and I think it should revert. But if you're starting a software business that isn't a solo shop--so you have hundreds of thousands of dollars in payroll--I would expect a $12K difference to not be the needle-mover between "start a business" and "don't"; we're not talking a hot dog stand here.

[pcai]

I understand where you’re coming from but the thing to understand is: most startups are incredibly marginal to begin with. If you tilt the field such that the entire distribution is now ~5-6% lower expected value for any given outcome, you can easily wipe out 80%+ of the startups that might’ve been “worth trying” but don’t make any sense now on a risk-adjusted basis. The entire asset class can become unfundable because the same money taking the same level of risk simply generates more returns elsewhere

[eropple]

Are we talking "startups" or "small businesses" here? I could see this blowing up startups for sure, but the conversation was about small businesses and I'm not sure I see the connection there. In my conception of the universe, you're not rolling out multiple hundreds of thousands of salary when you're hanging out your small-business shingle. You might grow to it, but that'll be over a long period of time.

[NerdiDotOrg]

Not quite. Plenty of startups pull 6-7 figures. We did 6 figure revenue on year 1 of our dev agency startup in past.

[eropple]

I assume you meant "plenty of small businesses". On what margin?