[dan-robertson]

The first plot in your link certainly looks inconclusive. It doesn’t look very close at all to meeting the statistical significance bar and I think it would be an error to conclude that it shows the emergency/provisionally licensed teachers were worse. But I wonder if other things might be going on, eg maybe COVID meant the emergency/provisionally licensed teachers were also disadvantaged from having less practice. And on the other hand, lots of them will have gotten much of the requirements for a license so it doesn’t really show much about the long term effects of changing the license requirements.