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by seabearDEV 879 days ago
Is there any evidence that supports this statement?
1 comments

Progression GPT1-2-3-4 in last 5 years, with no indication of any slowdown in the near future.
there are plenty of signs that it is slowing down

including current versions quality degradation, unprofitable business models (it's still too damn expensive to be covered by your average 19$/m subscription) etc.

There's no indication that the pace of innovation for LLMs in the near future will be anywhere near what it has been in the past few years.
Is there an indication it won't be?
We simply don't know what it will be. Growth in nature does not continue at the same pace forever, and eventually the speed of innovation will taper off.

It's a common phenomena, described with an S-curve: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function). We can't know if LLMs are already there, or not yet, we'll only know after the fact.

OK, so it is reasonable to assume that the chance the progress will continue in the next two years is about 50%, would you agree? If so, why are people in this thread dismiss my concerns as unreasonable?