[two_in_one]

> why there's so much insistence from business that magic happens at scale with LLMs

It's already happening. See latest Google layoffs. They are automating a lot of things. Most people don't realize it, but the change is going to be dramatic.

> We're a long way from AGI

This is a big question, what is AGI? LLMs are quite generic and 'intelligent'. Not human-like, but. Next is going to be incremental evolution. Till we find other, non-verbal, ways of 'thinking' and put them together. That's going to be a breakthrough. Interesting, terminator-like embodiment isn't a requirement for AGI, nor is stable 'personality'.

[x86x87]

Boy, we must have a totally different understanding of whay AGI is.

Intelligence is not about parroting an answer you've seen before. It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

[digging]

> It's about using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

I don't think that's right either (it sounds like a description of adaptation), and I don't think your description of LLMs is fair, even though I'm fairly sure they're not AGI and won't scale to AGI.

Intelligence is more like the ability to generalize skills, applying knowledge gained in one scenario to another scenario.

[x86x87]

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/intelligence

the ability to apply knowledge to manipulate one's environment or to think abstractly as measured by objective criteria (such as tests)

Manipulating the environment afaik is to increase your chances of survival.

[two_in_one]

> Intelligence is more like the ability to generalize skills, applying knowledge gained in one scenario to another scenario.

Hmm.. you are talking about LLMs.. They are the most generic thing we have right now (Jan 2024) LLMs have limitations, like learning on the fly isn't their strong side. But the same with brain, it consists of limited components, that's only together they work well. LLMs can be a part of the solution, if we can't find something better.

[two_in_one]

> using your environment to gain an evolutionary advantage.

That's more like robotics. Except for evolution part. Does AGI require breeding? Software can easily multiply itself. That's hardware is the problem then.

[x86x87]

Think about what incentives do you have to live - it may sound rough but pain and ultimately death are the ultimate things everyone is trying to avoid.

Intelligence emerges as you are trying to survive longer. Reproduction is the ultimate way of cheating death.

Environment does not necessarily needs to mean physical environment, but until the "AI" does not recognize that it is in danger of nonexisting and starts to behave in ways to avoid it it cannot, imho, make the leap to AGI and it's just a really sophisticated tool.

[digging]

> Intelligence emerges as you are trying to survive longer.

That's not a given - I don't even know if it's true. The longest-lived species are not very intelligent, relative to humans. Intelligence is a tool that may or may not evolve in organic species. Frankly, that has very little to do with defining what artificial intelligence is.

[LudwigNagasena]

> See latest Google layoffs. They are automating a lot of things. Most people don't realize it, but the change is going to be dramatic.

What exactly did they automate?

[two_in_one]

My guess paperwork. As they cut jobs in ads, where may things can be done programmatically now.

[sublinear]

> What exactly did they automate?

Their expenses haha