[godelski]

I'll give an even different example that what others are saying here. I would love to carry my medicine around in little bags so that I don't have to carry a whole bottle. It keeps things organized, more comfortable, and reduces problems if lost. But doing this can be illegal or suspicious no matter what that medication is, including simply ibuprofen. This is not dissimilar from the others saying they just want to not carry around a giant tub because the item is bought in bulk.

The important take away here (combined with the white powder examples) is "just because you don't see a reason or understand a reason doesn't mean it isn't a rational thing that someone else might do." The law is supposed to be about reasonable doubt. Even deeper, the law is about protecting citizens. These activities might be "suspicious" but that's a vague term. At worst, these would be drug __users__ and not __distributors__ and I'd say those are the higher priority. They're also easier to identify because having many small bags is much more suspicious because it is harder to justify the convenience of replacing a storage container and/or taking a daily/lower quantity of whatever that substance is. It might seem weird to carry a bag of creatine, but it much weirder to be carrying 20. But maybe I'm falling trap to my own critique, though I'm saying I'm placing this on a sprecturm of suspicion instead of a binary condition to allow for other context.

[giantg2]

"The law is supposed to be about reasonable doubt."

That's what you'll be evaluated in court with (or should be).

To arrest or get a warrant, it's only that the law has been broken by a preponderance of the evidence to meet probable cause. Although it seems that the courts aren't even holding it up to this standard very often.

"It might seem weird to carry a bag of creatine, but it much weirder to be carrying 20"

Very true, and it's absolutely a spectrum. One thing to point out is that most departments require police to make a "thorough investigation". If there's a valid reason then they should be able to confirm it. If stuff sounds fishy, they can investigate further. A lot of the failures talked about in the article are not strictly test failures - they're failures of judgement or knowledge by not relying on other facts or by relying too heavily on the tests.

[godelski]

> they're failures of judgement or knowledge by not relying on other facts or by relying too heavily on the tests.

I think this is well put and I really appreciate your response. I generally agree and I'm generally one that is quite critical of metrics. But I do not see this article as solely about a failure of test, but the interconnectedness and reliance on poor metrics rather than using them to update priors.

Particularly why I like the last sentence is I find this being one of the key points that distinguishes us humans from machines. Because we are able to do such things as "I see the rules, I understand the rules" and more importantly "I understand why the rules were made, and while this violates the rules it was clearly not something the rules were intended to prevent." Because rules __are__ made to be broken. Because rules are imperfect. Tests are imperfect. Literally everything is imperfect. We have a strong desire for order and perfection which helps us decrease the noise but I think we all could do a bit better at embracing the chaos a bit more.

[LorenPechtel]

Depends on the stuff.

20 small bags of creatine for a 20 day trip makes perfectly good sense. Leave your measuring equipment at home.

And they are test "failures"--the problem is the field tests are not specific enough and will react to innocent materials. (Same as fertilizer or glycerin setting off the bomb sniffer at the airport. Lots of skin products contain glycerin.) And expect any competent drug smuggler to know the cross reactions of the stuff they are carrying--thus what they say isn't really relevant.

[godelski]

> 20 small bags of creatine for a 20 day trip makes perfectly good sense. Leave your measuring equipment at home.

It's also worth noting that in high likelihood you'd have additional context around this. Namely luggage or other such travel accessories. Because it is unlikely that you would create such daily allocations and then carry them on your person. It's more likely to leave them wherever you're staying. Everything is still likelihood based (dependent on model we use, which is why I specify likelihood).

[alan-hn]

How does one get to where they are staying? Do people selling drugs never have luggage?

[alan-hn]

What if instead of having a large container that has powder that needs to be measured someone wants to take premeasured single dose bags? Or should people to carry a scale on road trips to measure their creatine? I don't think it should be suspicious at all

[anigbrowl]

As a purely practical matter, a measuring spoon works just as well. I keep a 7.5ml spoon in the creatine jar because it's a quantity I don't seem to ever need for anything else. I agree with all the points about reasonability and probable cause described above, but it's also smart to assume that cops are low IQ jerks and (for example) if you're traveling, to keep your creatine in a labeled container, ideally the one you bought it in. Failing that, print out a fact sheet on creatine and keep it with the creatine.

Of course we shouldn't have to engage in pre-emptive defensive strategies like this. Cops should operate to far higher standards and exemplify the principle of innocent until proven guilty. But the reality is that a lot of them are stupid and/or corrupt. Having been arrested on false pretences a few times, your post-contact explanations, no matter how reasonable, don't carry much weight if the cop finds you suspicious for some reason. For all practical purposes, cops are trained to maximize confirmation bias.

[LorenPechtel]

And the flip side of this is I've seen security doing the same thing in the other direction. My wife set off a nuke scanner in Shanghai. To compound the problem the card from the lab (it was a nuclear heart scan) was sitting in the pocket of the jacket she planned to wear--and changed at the last minute. Despite that it was resolved with a little bit of conversation (admittedly, my wife speaks native-level Mandarin with a Shanghai accent), nobody did the simple test of waving around a geiger counter to see if it was her or something she had that was hot. (And to say something of the state of security--she passed through one US airport when 8x as hot and another when 4x as hot. A sufficiently sensitive detector could figure out that it's 140keV gamma rays and thus medical, but that's not the sort of thing that could be determined from a distance.)

[godelski]

> nobody did the simple test of waving around a geiger counter to see if it was her or something she had that was hot.

Not to justify the experience, but I don't think the purpose of the test is to explicitly discriminate the difference between a person being hot or an item the person has being hot. The test is often used to identify people who work with nuclear materials, where then you want to determine if they are a nuclear worker, spy, terrorist, or simply a member of the public.

I'll also add that despite being really good at detecting radiation there's really high variance in how people respond to sources. I had a tritium keychain shipped from China a decade ago and it sat in customs for several weeks. The general public does not know the difference between radiation types or even understand levels. I highly doubt they are using sensitive detectors and just using a cheap Geiger Counter (which beta emitters will set off). I very highly doubt they are using neutron detectors.

Interestingly I bought the tritium on Amazon but it no longer seems like you can buy them there. There are several listings that __look__ like they sell them, but here's an illustrative example[0]. Note the last picture specifies the vial is not included. When you search Amazon you will come across a lot of phosphorous and certainly there are many sellers trying to pass this off as tritium. It looks like you can still buy uranium ore though...

[0] https://www.amazon.com/TEC-SCR-Isotope-Chain-Reaction-Aqua/d...

[Note] For those reading, tritium is perfectly safe. Radiation levels are not high enough to pass through skin and even light clothing will block it. A keychain is typically a very small quantity which is contained in a glass vial that is coated with phosphorous (to emit light, like a CRT monitor), and then contained in acrylic. I have personally tested that keychain and even let students use it as an extra credit in a radiation detection lab (they were asking about the safety). There is danger if you consume it or rub it in your eyes or genitals (or other soft body parts), but the amount you'd have for a keychain is very insignificant and poses zero risk. It's worth mentioning that tritium is going to be a gas, so if you break the vial it still will not represent danger unless you break it inside your mouth or right in front of your eyes (still likely low risk) due to the fact that it will quickly disperse (it is lighter than air). Tritium is fucking awesome and I wish production was a bit higher so we could have more access. It is commonly used in watch hands and gun sights but can essentially be used in anything you want to "permanently" glow in the dark. Half life is about 10 years but worth mentioning that you won't get a bright glow, but it will be easily identifiable at night or very low light conditions.

[LorenPechtel]

True, but they did nothing but talk for a little bit. If she was what they were looking for their actions would not have been of any value. In her case we had just walked through a metal rectangle--could simply have been something to narrow the line to one person wide, or there could have been something in it. I had thought it was lining people up for an infrared camera (I had previously seen such a station with a monitor that was clearly showing an IR camera view of the crowd) but they called her over.

This was Tc-99M, half life 6 hours, 140keV gamma emitter. Commonly used in imaging heart arteries.

[godelski]

I fully agree with you. I was just suggesting that a larger quantity is of higher suspicion but you're pointing at a clear context I wanted to be open to.

I fully believe that there is no hard rule based system that can adequately account for all reasonable scenarios. In fact, I think a key part of what makes us different from machines is being able to reject "rules" because we understand they're more akin to guides. So I agree and thank you for bringing this up.

Side note: in many countries medicine does in fact come in pre-measured dose bags. It might be more plastic but it sure is convenient and has other advantages.

[bostonsre]

Yea, I didn't think of something like creatine. That being said, I would still be a little sketched to travel with it like that as I would assume the first thoughts of a police officer isn't going to be "that's probably creatine" when most of the times they are exposed to something like that in the past, it was drugs.

That probably sways my thoughts on should it be enough for an arrest if it flags as positive some though.

[alan-hn]

Unfortunately police don't tend to be very bright and seem to constantly try to find things to pin people for, it's what they're trained to do. Drugs being illegal is a bad idea partially because of this issue. This is just another example of how drug prohibition causes more harm than good.

[bostonsre]

Their job is to enforce the law. It doesn't seem quite right to denigrate them and call them not bright for doing their job. Shouldn't you be blaming someone else and not the people in the trenches? Also, I'm not sure its so black and white about how drug prohibition has caused more harm than good. I definitely wouldn't want to live in Portland or SF and some of the people stuck in the throws of inescapable addiction might disagree with you.

[alan-hn]

Portland and SF don't have fully legal and regulated drug supply so I'm not sure what your point is.

Drug prohibition is the entire reason that fentanyl is now in the drug supply and prohibition where supply is unregulated is a large reason for overdose deaths. Most overdose deaths are due to inconsistency in potency which would not be a problem if the supply were regulated. Compound that issue with the harm that the legal system does to someone with an addiction, essentially barring them from normal life if they have a conviction, and we have the recipe for disaster which is the current state of affairs. People with drug convictions are generally seen as having a scarlet letter of unemployability which generally keeps them in a state of addiction and/or homelessness and there is a massive stigma attached not only to drug addiction but mental health issues which usually go hand in hand. That makes it incredibly difficult to get proper treatment.

[anigbrowl]

A lot of them are not bright by design, departments select for obedience rather than intelligence, and at least one person sued and lost after learning that they were rejected because of having too high an IQ: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/jordan-v...

Here's you're equating cops' default behavior with doing their job of law enforcement, while overlooking the fact that they often don't perform that job well because they discount reasonable possibilities that initially suspect activity is not actually illegal, and reflexively waive issues like presumption of innocence, 4th amendment limitations and so on. Read up on police training, which is terrible in the US.

[bostonsre]

You cite one instance and equate that to a lot of them are not bright by design. I am sure there are indeed some cops that are not great and some that have lower intelligence. The bad cases are usually highlighted, while those that serve their country honorably and professionally get zero recognition. It is an incredibly hard and thankless job and we will be a lot worse off as a country in the future if we keep shouting them down and denigrating them instead of giving constructive criticism about the system. The better ones will become more and more discouraged and people will have more and more to complain about in the future.

[worik]

I had to look up "creatine"

It is (?) an unproven performance enhancing drug

Much more serious and dangerous than even the most dangerous recreational drugs is it not?

[InSteady]

Creatine is produced endogenously and is believed to be a critical component of energy metabolism and expenditure, particularly in muscle tissue (including in the heart and skeletal muscle that keeps us alive).

As a supplement, it is extremely well researched (probably the most researched exercise supplement) and has been thoroughly demonstrated to have moderate enhancements to digestion, metabolism, and physical performance in all kinds of populations. It is also quite safe. Taking too much for too long can cause stomach discomfort, muscle cramps, dehydration, and in rare cases kidney damage.

The body produces about 1g per day naturally and humans who eat meat tend to get another gram or so through diet. Supplementing ~3g per day has been demonstrated to be extremely safe pretty much indefinitely (except possibly in people with liver or kidney disease, possibly other organ dysfunction).

Just like caffeine (and all manner of substances) if you have lots of pure powder and no clue about safe dosage, it can get dangerous very quickly.

[alan-hn]

Not sure why you think its unproven, it's actually one of the supplements used in weight sports that has possibly the largest amount of solid evidence behind it.

https://examine.com/supplements/creatine/

[godelski]

People also use it as a nootropic which I think the parent is referring to.

[alan-hn]

Frankly that seems a little strange to me. Was it not known as one of the most commonly used supplements in weight lifting for a long time before it was thought of as a nootropic? Just googling creatine gives all sorts of results about it being a sport supplement

[godelski]

Honestly, I don't know. I'm not into nootropics, just a random "fact" I was aware of (fact being this group considers it a nootropic lol). But I'll reference the reddit guide if you want to dig in yourself[0]. But I'm not sure I would expect a great answer as these types of subreddits often have an abundance of unwarranted confidence.

[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/Nootropics/wiki/beginners/#wiki_cre...