[espe]

the "perfectly rational markets" expect the central banks to lower interest rates. which actually assumes that something economically worse happens in the meantime because as it is now, the fed is _not_ lowering.

[katakan]

core CPI is dropping and most of the growth in December was real-state (which is on a downward trend)

Some consumer prices deflated last month

Wider economy job data is not as hot (december was 40k higher than expected but 70k jobs were erased from octo and november payroll so its cooling)

while the fed may not cut in march i think its likely they will cut at least once or twice in '24

[espe]

yes that sounds rational. central bankers are humans with a target on their back though.