[myrmidon]

This appears like wishful thinking to me, because motorcycles have been available for a century, but people still almost always prefer cars if they can afford them.

Cars keep you much better protected from temperature, weather and traffic; it seems very unlikely to me that people will just forgo these comforts to rent electric rollers in the future.

Keeping a similar total number of privately owned cars, but almost all electric, sounds MUCH more likely to me.

[bluejekyll]

> Cars keep you much better protected from … traffic;

I think you mean car traffic. Cars create most of the dangerous traffic conditions that exist in our cities and neighborhoods.

While the GP’s post is idealistic, so many places are working to make non-car travel safer, it’s not hard to imagine a future where people choose more convenient modes of transportation as they feel safer doing so. Bikes as an example, tend to be easier to park, avoid most traffic issues (never really get stuck in traffic) and generally don’t have to look for parking at your destination. The only downside is their utility is generally mostly for local travel (last mile) of about 2 miles.

My guess is that for people that live within 2 miles of their work, school, and other needs, you’ll start seeing most households drop to a single car, with electric bikes making up most of the utility needs. It’s hard to predict a timeline here, and is highly dependent on a communities attention to making roads safer for non-car users. But for communities that do make those safety improvements you see big upticks in bike usage for things like taking kids to school, daily food shopping, and travel to work.

[myrmidon]

> I think you mean car traffic

No; I mean that a car protects reliably in case of an accident. When on a bike, roller or on foot you are MUCH more likely to bleed or break bones. Bike-on-bike crashes can be fatal, even if there were zero cars or trucks around.

Living within 2 miles of work for the majority sounds just improbable to me without falling back on short-term renting (maybe even then). Outside urban centers- impossible.

[otabdeveloper4]

Scooters, ebikes and other personal electric vehicles have a comfortable range of about 30 miles. (15 you want there and back again.)

[bluejekyll]

True, though based on the statistics around this most people tend to only bike about 5 miles. After that, it’s really only the folks committed to not driving at all.

[otabdeveloper4]

It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable.

Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now.

Societis/cultures who ignore efficiency will be eventually forced to adapt against their will. It's just market economics.

(E.g., you can be obstinate and waste a significant chunk of your income just for the perceived comfort of a car, but over a few generations these people will lose in economic competition to people who act rationally.)

[pfdietz]

"People won't do something if it's not efficient" is quite a take. Demonstrably wrong, too. People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience.

As PV goes down its experience curve, the cost of operating an electric vehicle will fall. As batteries go down their curves, the cost of the vehicles themselves will fall. This will naturally push the equilibrium tradeoff point to larger, more energy intensive vehicles.

[bluejekyll]

As someone who’s adopting bikes for most of my utility needs, food shopping, dropping kids off at school, one thing I can’t agree with is that cars are more convenient. In general, I find cars to be far less convenient. They are annoying to park, often get stuck in traffic, and generally are just annoying large boxes that you need a lot of space to maneuver. Using a cargo bike for most of those needs on the other hand is far more convenient. Cars are definitely more comfortable, especially on rainy days. But even on rainy days, I often choose to ride (if it’s not a crazy storm) as it’s still more convenient.

[nradov]

Cars are only inconvenient in a few dense urban areas. In the places where most Americans live/work/shop/recreate there is plenty of free parking and traffic isn't too bad.

Cargo bikes can be a great option, though.

[bluejekyll]

Most Americans live in urban or dense suburban environments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-26/u-s-urban...

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-ru...

[nradov]

You appear to have misunderstood the Census definitions. Most of what they label as "urban" or "suburban" is hardly dense by urban planning standards. The people living in those places mostly have a surplus of parking.

[Swizec]

> People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience

This must be why European cars are generally smaller than American cars. It has nothing to do with the lack of tax breaks on large vehicles, historically higher gas prices, and notoriously smaller parking spots. Nothing at all. Europeans just like smaller cars, right?

And let’s not get into why half of Asia seems to ride around on tiny little 50cc vespas/scooters. I’m sure that’s just more comfortable there what with all the extremely hot weather and monsoon rains.

[TeMPOraL]

Most people in Europe are money-bound, not energy-bound, when choosing what car to buy.

[Swizec]

You use money to buy energy. Wouldn't matter that you're money-bound if gas was free. With gas (energy) not being free, people are voting with their wallet to say they would rather spend their limited funds on things other than energy.

For example: Going bonkers crazy on insulation is a common thing to do in Europe. We had TV ads for triple-pane windows back in the 1990s in a country (Slovenia) where re-doing your windows costs an annual wage or more. Because over N years it comes out cheaper than paying for energy.

Energy is so cheap in USA, at least in CA where I am, that even in 2024 seeing double-pane windows on a house is rare. Let alone triple or quadruple pane, which have become the norm back home.

[pfdietz]

The US houses I've lived in for the last 30 years have had double paned windows.

In 2017, 59% of homes in the US had double paned windows.

https://dwmmag.com/survey-multi-pane-windows-now-on-59-perce...

[otabdeveloper4]

It's just the free market, dude. 20 years ago we didn't have cheaper and more efficient options. Now we do.

[pfdietz]

And by gum you're going to coerce people into buying them even if they don't want to!

[concordDance]

> It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable.

> Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now.

Comfort is something we spend energy and resources on. This is a good thing.

You could potentially argue its too much energy/resources but that's not a determination you can make, not having access to people's internal emotional states. Some people really like giant fuzzy toys, some like nothing more than flying and some like fancy VR.

We should let people spend the energy/resources they earn on what gives them the most comfort/enjoyment or we'll be Typical Mind Fallacying our way to collective unhappiness.

(The above assumes that the externalities of cars are correctly priced in in the form of car insurance, road tax, congestion charge and fuel duty)

[detourdog]

I was struck on a visit to Tel Aviv how absolutely every economic class had a form of powered transportation.

The low rung was the scooter/bicycle and the expense and convenience went up from there.

The streets are absolutely clogged with every level of transportation and everyone was busy and going fast.

Quite a contrast to rural New England but obviously the future. I see a college professor riding a one wheel about 2 miles from campus going up an incline that stretches for 2 miles. The road turns to dirt as it crosses state lines to Vermont. I dislike the ride on my bicycle. I stopped him once and I think he said he had 40 mile range!?