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by YZF
895 days ago
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It's really hard to say. I think saying "the west doesn't truly care" isn't 100% accurate. Some people in the "free world" do truly care about these things. Some are more internally focused- it's a mix. It is not impossible that the US will defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. It depends on who is president, who their advisors are, what are they thinking about. "Caring" about Taiwan or Taiwanese might be some part of that calculation. For one thing the US having declared that it will do so increases the chances that they actually will, and their presence in the region also increases the probability. Do they have a variety of other considerations? Sure. Are they acting out of self interest, also sure. But the interests appear to somewhat align (i.e. it is in the US's interest that Taiwan remains in the western sphere of influence and it's also what Taiwan seems to want, and it's what China doesn't want). If it was clear that the US would stay out of it then perhaps China would have already retaken Taiwan. Arguably some of the other conflicts are really part of the same power struggle. Russia's half-failure in Ukraine is maybe causing China to take a pause. Ukraine and Israel are a little different. Israel has the capability to defend itself. Ukraine is arguably less strategically important. A direct confrontation with Russia has perhaps a higher risk of turning into a nuclear war. |
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