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by brindlejim 895 days ago
DJI has been delivering payloads in Ukraine for some time now.
1 comments

It foretells a future of DJI delivering payloads in the US.
Is there a US drone manufacturer on-par with DJI, or does DJI have the entire field on lock?

What about if broken down by sector - consumer/prosumer/hobbyist, industrial, military?

DJI has almost everything locked down aside from military. Parrot and Skydio try to compete backed by heavy subsidies/large guaranteed contracts but in terms of volume, revenue, R&D spend etc they're irrelevant on the global market. Even in the US market they're only relevant in government - the only difference between them and niche providers like AeroVironment is scale and the attempt to market to consumers.

The US has a decent military drone industry, extremely expensive compared to international competitors with not as much dynamism/variety, but good volumes and reliability. China has good prices, is the global leader in dynamism/variety, and also global leader in volume; they're the biggest exporter. Turkey and Iran are both way above their weight class specifically in drone production, too, as is Israel. Turkey is even to the point where they're competing with China, which is really impressive for a middle power.

Parent is suggesting we'll see war or terrorism in the US with drones. It was in response to a comment about Ukraine, where DJI drones are heavily (maybe as many as 50k [0]a month by the Ukrainians) to drop hand grenades in trenches.

Honestly realistic. Very hard to stop.

[0] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...

No. DJI is a Chinese company. If it happens, the next world changing conflict after ww2 is war with China. You can bet your ass China will weaponize those drones if that happens, and that's a really big IF.
Id be terrified of a war with china. a typical dji pocket drone would be a effective miliary tool in the right hands and they don't even consider that miliary grade. I can only wonder what the "good stuff" looks like.
A typical dji drone is more advanced and cheaper then all other drones of the same size and caliber. dji is pretty much the best at it right now.

As for the good stuff like the F-35, the US still dominates. The overall problem is that it's like 100000x the cost. Take this, if the US lost it's entire navy in an instant it would take the US over a decade to rebuild. If the same thing happened to China they can rebuild that Navy in a year.

China doesn’t need to go to war with the US. They just need to keep building, and waiting.

The trend lines for the growth of the superpowers are clear.

Your great grandchildren will be native speakers of Mandarin.

China can't even get itself out of its obvious demographic crisis with a more unified political group. A big reason why russia went to war with ukrane now was it being at its do or die demographic crisis point.

Wait 5 or 10 years and they wouldn't have enough young people to do it. The USA is doing much better on the reproduction & immigration front than China, so China probably cannot afford to wait in such a war of attrition.

Also thinking about the USA culturally, nobody would speak mandarin even if China was dominate, mostly for the same reasons why most of latin america only speaks their native language.

No, it's not clear at all. The latest forecasts are not even clear about China surpassing US in nominal GDP. China's demographics look pretty horrible in the long term, US on the other hand is quite healthy. China doesn't really have allies like the US has.
You assume China can develop to western levels without a regime change.
Is there really such a scare of a war with China in the US?
You know, for years people said the same thing in Ukraine about Russia. Sadly, an authoritarian regime (anything not democratic, mafia state, even a good old fashioned kingdom, or dictatorship) is always a threat for not just neighbours enjoying freedom and prosperity, but any such country around the world. Especially now that media and Internet can counter any state propaganda showing how great a paradise North Korea, China, Iran, or Russia is.

Why did Russia absolutely have to attack Ukraine? Because it's very existence in peace with the west, eventual economic prosperity (like Poland, Czech Rep. etc), eventual diminishing of corruption as the country implements new laws are an example what Russia could be. Why is Poland the most hated country by ordinary state TV watching Russians? Because it's a medium sized country that achieved success being a part "of the West". The typical part of the Russian imperial (designed to enslave others) narrative is: Every strong partner will exploit a weaker one. Democracy is a lie. All you do by becoming democratic is you hide the corruption and you switch one ruler for another. China uses the same narrative, but internally. That's why these countries will do absolutely everything to poison the society in the US and any democratic country. When they are prevented of doing so (and they will, because people will learn what is the truth) and their regimes inevitably collapse economically (as China is starting right now) war is the only way these people can stay in power. So yes, a war between autocracies and free countries is inevitable unless free countries are strong enough militarily to be able to win it in few months tops. A prolonged war, like what we're seeing in Ukraine is actually a huge benefit for autocracies, because it removes the only thing they fear the most, their own people uprising.

China is making it very clear that they are thinking about "rejoining Taiwan to the mainland", which translates into "Invading Taiwan".

So the next question is how US will respond. If the west chooses to defend Taiwan, they are basically at war.

No not at the moment. The actual risk is low but it is still in the realm of possibility. It is also one of highest cost potential conflicts still in the realm of possibility.

Both countries would strike the other down in a heart beat if there wasn't a huge economic cost associated with war.

The entire propaganda apparatus and the entire political class has been drumming up war with china for nearly a decade. So yes. There is a geniune concern. But it's not an immediate fear of war but a looming sense that there will be a war with china sometime in the future.

Take this article. It really has nothing to do with war or even china. But propagandists or people influenced by propaganda always insert that narrative. Try it with anything remotely china related. Someone or some bot or something always inserts a war narrative or anti-china narrative in it. It's clearly intentional and not organic. There is a coordinated effort to fearmonger war with china.

Edit: Interesting. Downvote brigaded. Wonder if it was this comment or the comment about ukraine...

TBH I'm surprised we haven't seen drone terrorism
that was one of my favorite Call of Duty campaign twists