[whynotminot]

At some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level?

Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentages are in clean multiples of 5.

[dbish]

There’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical

[whynotminot]

Maybe for you. I actually do think something meaningful is communicated when someone says “I’m about 60% confident in this” versus saying “I’m fairly confident in this.”

I don’t take it as him trying to put on a veneer of precision on what he’s saying. In fact it feels kinda obtuse to assume that’s what he’s doing.