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by mechagodzilla
895 days ago
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Even in that very optimistic vision of the future: * You don't have the tools or supplies on hand (just let that pipe keep flooding your basement until an amazon delivery arrives!), and many of them are expensive and sufficiently specialized that a homeowner might only need them 2-3 times in a lifetime. * You don't have any training for using the tools if you had them. * You might not be physically capable of doing the task even if you had the tools and new how to use them, you might easily injure yourself (or others) or make the problem worse, etc. Think of it like youtube - for most household repair tasks, you can probably already find a youtube video of someone explaining how to do the fix. Do roofers and plumbers and electricians still exist, even though a youtube video can show anyone how to do most of those tasks? AGI glasses seem like they might make less of an impact for most homeowners than youtube has. |
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* Every time I've encountered a home owner with a burst pipe or flooding scenario their immediate problem was lack of knowledge on they different ways to shut off the water supply. And if the problem is something as simple as lack of a wrench then you could always go get one faster than an emergency plumber could get onsite.
* The AGI glasses don't need to solve 100% of problems to be disruptive to the skilled trades. No reason they can't refer you to a human specialist. An (outsourced) human could join your AR glasses session (for a cost) and see if they can provide more instruction to both you and the AGI or if referral to a local human was needed. A Google supplied augmented reality AGI could charge users for specialized assistants AND then charge human service providers for higher placement in the referral listing.
* Local tool rental is a common thing, no reason hardware stores couldn't function as a same day fulfilment instead of amazon. And a lot of tools are cheaper to buy even if they only get used once than paying for a single service call.
* Re: tool training - I'm sure the AGI could recommend approaches to avoid tooling where possible. For example recommending shark bite connectors instead of brazing pipes, etc. But yeah, some people just won't have the dexterity to use a hammer. The issue of being able to plaster or finish drywall nicely that vidarh pointed out in another post is also a good example. It might be a boon to the local AR/AGI enhanced handman.
* Agree on roofers and electricians... where the possibility of self harm is high these scenarios are too risky without basic training. Maybe you'd have to get a DIY electricity safety license to unlock that ability in the AGI. Or maybe only apprentice electricians can use the electrical AGI, the result would still be less need for master electricians.
* Re: YouTube - As a DIY homeowner I love youtube but having to wade through hundreds of videos until I find the one video that applies to my scenario is exhausting. An AGI would already be trained on much of that knowledge. It'd lower the barrier. Again it doesn't eliminate the need for the trades but it does disrupt them further than youtube already has.
Think of it more like adding a self-checkout line to the trades. It helps in a lot of scenarios, the casher job role doesn't go away but a lot of people are unemployed or making less money all of a sudden.