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by connorgutman 892 days ago
Oh boy, an opportunity to flex my AgSci degree oh HN! The invention of the HB process is more akin to a planetary credit card loan. It has done absolutely nothing to increase the Earth's *genuine* carrying capacity and (IMO) trapped humanity in insurmountable ecological debt. It has directly accelerated the mass-depletion of countless other finite resources such as water, healthy top soil, micronutrients, and more. The fact that it has allowed humanity to grow so much without consideration for other finite factors has also contributed to several secondary "loans" which have further trapped us in debt. Most notably, humanity's dependence on mono-culture farming which ravages biodiversity, creates super pests, and zaps soil health. You simply cannot feed 8 billion people with organic farming methods and the current energy cost of controlled-climate hydroponics makes it impractical at scale. As you mentioned, all of this growth also contributes to humanity's collective appetite for, well, everything. Plus the HB process is responsible for 1.4% of global emissions, giant oceanic dead-zones caused by runoff, increased acid rain, less overall nutritious foods, and so so much more. It's a planetary catch-22. Without it billions will starve, but with it we continue to charge towards a mass-extinction event.
3 comments

> Oh boy, an opportunity to flex my AgSci degree oh HN! The invention of the HB process is more akin to a planetary credit card loan. It has done absolutely nothing to increase the Earth's genuine carrying capacity and (IMO) trapped humanity in insurmountable ecological debt.... Without it billions will starve, but with it we continue to charge towards a mass-extinction event.

It's worth noting that process is one of the technologies that techno-optimists like to cite to shout down skeptics of their belief we humans will always techno-magick ourselves out of every problem. We will until we can't, and a couple generations after being proven wrong by famine and extinctions, the techno-optimists will resume their chant.

Yeah, a couple of less than pleasant factoids:

- we are burning up to 10 calories of petrol chemical energy to get 1 calorie of food energy

- we are currently using something like 3 times earth's annual resource production

And yet the food supply is fine, so when exactly do you predict this "loan" will come due exactly, and what separates you from all the other people who discredited themselves with such predictions in the past?

> countless other finite resources such as water

Water is a renewable resource!

> Water is a renewable resource

A lot of water used for agriculture in the US is "fossil water" from aquifers that takes millions of years to replenish. The oceans are a limitless supply of water, but like the HB process, require energy to convert to a useful form.

Moreover, in many instances, the conversion to a useful form is short-changed, leaving salts in the water which results in long-term problems --- look at agriculture around Lake Baikal for an example.
Is it "fine"? 44 million people in the US experience hunger. Countless more in the global south are straight up starving. I'm not sure I'd call that fine.