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by jillesvangurp 891 days ago
We have a nice fusion plant called the sun. Almost everything we do is powered by it directly or indirectly. Tapping into its power more efficiently is what is driving economic growth this century.

Nuclear has one big problem. It's just way too expensive. Not just a little bit but by orders of magnitude. That's why renewables are outgrowing nuclear by an order of magnitude as well. We're talking pitiful amounts of nuclear here and there (mostly China actually) and a sweet 0.6-0.7 TW of new renewable capacity added every year, growing year on year. That should cross the TW mark some time later this decade just by virtue of current investment levels (which are also growing).

In comparison, there currently are plans for about 110 GW or so new nuclear capacity. Mostly in China. That's a total, spread over the next few decades. Per year it probably will average around 10-20 GW added per year. That's about 2 orders of magnitude off. And before you consider the existing nuclear capacity that will reach end of life during the same period. Nuclear capacity might actually start experience negative growth (i.e. shrink). And of course some those plans might actually be shelved. A lot can happen in a few decades. Like the addition of tens of TW of new renewable capacity making nuclear kind of redundant. Those nuclear plans date back to an age when people were severely underestimating how much renewables we'd have by now.

Even if you'd double or triple that amount of nuclear, it would still be a side show. The main economic driver for economies this century will be energy delivered mostly by wind, solar, and batteries and a long tail of other, more costly solutions like nuclear, hydro, geothermal. Unless something happens on the cost front, that's how it is playing out.