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by baq 891 days ago
Don’t be so sure about that… rates will fall sharply in a recession, otherwise inflation will run hot (see today’s print!) Rates market prices in the average outcome, but the distribution isn’t uniform nor Gaussian.
1 comments

> Don’t be so sure about that… rates will fall sharply in a recession, otherwise inflation will run hot

What? Lowering interest rates raises inflation.

> See today's print

Can you link? Not sure what your talking about

Official USA inflation numbers ticked up slightly in December.
mostly driven by housing which has a 12 month lag and has dropped significantly in the last 6 months.