[wonderwonder]

I have a feeling this is going to continue as AI / LLM's become more capable. I know I am late to the party but was messing around with chatGPT the other day to see if it could help me with a code issue I was stuck on. It blew my mind!

I don't see how it and similar LLM's don't lead to massive replacement of tech workers and creatives.

[halfmatthalfcat]

No? It will just widen the gap between code monkeys and actual developers who build scalable systems. It seems like these takes are only espoused by those with nieve or little to no experience in software development.

[wonderwonder]

This is an odd thing to say when its actually happening in the real world. People are getting laid off and replaced with AI.

I guess all of the leaders at those businesses though are" naive or little to no experience in software development."

I have actually been present in a meeting and watched in real time where someone demoed an LLM that absolutely replaced the need to keep several engineers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/16/ai-job-losses-are-rising-but....

[halfmatthalfcat]

There is no way to quantify "software development losses from AI" versus post-COVID hiring frenzy layoffs and cheap capital becoming more expensive. Any definitive statement claiming such is purely conjecture.

No companies who are doing layoffs are saying "we're laying off developers because AI", everyone who is drawing those conclusions are making assumptions. AI can automate other menial, clerical stuff, but making that stretch to software development isn't founded.

ChatGPT and friends coincidentally started gaining traction as the economy started cooling off. Rather than drawing casual inferences to AI, it's much more likely that companies are laying off because of the latter rather than AI.

[wonderwonder]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/tech/duolingo-layoffs-due-to-...

[halfmatthalfcat]

> AI-related changes in how content is generated and shared

This has to do with them leveraging AI for their product, not replacing software developers writing code. They also didn't fire any full-timers, so I fail to see how this fits your assertions.

[wonderwonder]

Its the beginning. I do hope I'm wrong but I dont think either of us knows the future.

[ChatGTP]

This would imply there is an “end of work”. If these things are so good at augmenting your work, why would Google not keep their engineers, augment them with LLMs and just be more profitable and productive with the same number of people ? What does the lay off part get them ? Why be “just as productive” if you could be moar productive?

The fully replacing people thing would be if we had an AGI in which case I’ll be using one to augment myself and stay on top of the game.

[wonderwonder]

Because that's not how the real world works. Any product has a real world limit on the amount of money it can generate. Only so many companies are going to subscribe to product X. There are only so many customers in a particular niche.

Your assumption is that generating more work = more profit.

The idea that just adding more engineers leads to more money is an obvious fallacy. Cutting engineers though and continuing to receive the same income is an obvious way to increase net profit.

[ChatGTP]

Because that's not how the real world works. Any product has a real world limit on the amount of money it can generate.

Yes it is, I’ve never seen “the end of work”, have you ?

Google has an unlimited amount of issues to solve. I read about them here everyday. ChatGPT is even an existential threat to their search, if not directly, then through the internet becoming a huge piece of AI spam.

LLMs are not why Google is laying people off.

[wonderwonder]

No one is talking about or implying the end of work except you. What I am saying is that if a company can do more work with less people they will do it.

"Google has an unlimited amount of issues to solve" sure but that does not lead to profits otherwise they would just hire as many people as they could and make more money. Again that's not how it works.

"LLMs are not why Google is laying people off." Guess we will find out soon: https://dataconomy.com/2024/01/03/report-google-ai-layoffs-2...

[ChatGTP]

We don’t if that’s the real reason or the advertised reason that they’re laying people off. If was an investor I’d prefer the "AI is making us money for nothing story". But I know blog spam is also screwing their product up. It’s why I pay for an alternative search engine.

Ironically AI seems like a huge problem for Google's main business. Even if what you're saying is true, and all the layoffs are because of AI productivity gains. Well guess what? Other people can use AI to build cheap advertising businesses too? AI is cheap and it's getting cheaper, thanks to open source AI, it's accessible to everyone.

What I've come to realize is that, it's not Youtube that's valuable, or Google, or even Open AI, it's the information these things are providing access too. The information people are creating for them. The communities.

Now it seems like accessing that information is becoming democratized in a way that Google never really planned for. Soon I might be able to have something that can generate a youtube video for any topic I need, without youtube, just locally on my laptop or phone. That's going to be a problem for them. They know this.

[gumballindie]

There is no evidence that any of your statements are correct. Yet somehow people keep parroting such comments. Is OpenAI desperate for customers to gaslight?

[wonderwonder]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/tech/duolingo-layoffs-due-to-...

[gumballindie]

The context is software development.

[wonderwonder]

In my view, its the beginning. I hope I am wrong.

[gumballindie]

Without doubt, machine learning is here to stay. But it won't be anywhere near the promised value. People already realise they've been misled into thinking there's intelligence in it, and the narrative is changing. There's heavy backlash against ai support bots, ai generated content, and code is proven to not work as advertised. Furthermore, people are taking action against the rampant intellectual property theft and the less content to steal the less useful these tools are. Eventually the hype will stabilize and things will be back to a new normal.