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by qwytw 895 days ago
> world reserve asset.

Except it's extremely unsuited for this purpose despite of what some delusional people might be thinking. No (at at least semi stable) country ever will use bitcoin as their primary reserve asset...

3 comments

John Nash has a great essay which predicted Bitcoin.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.2325-8012....

Anywhere I can read thia withiut paywall?
Agreed. And while I oppose it, a CBDC would be more likely than Bitcoin.
Because you say so?
My argument is just as substantive as the pro-bitcoin ones and spending any meaningful amount of effort arguing with these people is just like fighting windmills.

But no, not because I say so but because it's obvious if you have at least a cursory understanding of the international monetary system works.

Fair enough - your "no" vote is duly counted.

> But no, not because I say so but because it's obvious

Okay, so not because you say so but because you think so :)

> Okay, so not because you say so but because you think so :)

Well.. I mean it's a bit like the "climate change is fake" or "5G causes cancer" people. Getting into a serious argument with them only legitimizes their viewpoints and makes them seem just as valid for not good reason..

- climate change is fake

- 5G causes cancer

- bitcoin is a scam

Your substantive and well-reasoned argument fits right in with that list ;)

> - bitcoin is a scam

That what you said, please don't put words into my mouth. My only point is that bitcoin (or crypto in general) would make a horrible currency if widely adopted. And it has nothing to do with any technical limitations related to bitcoin, extremely deflationary tokens just make a horrible currency (unless no growth, deflation and a permanent economic depression).

> Your substantive and well-reasoned argument

It certainly wasn't intended to be perceived as such.

(trying to make well-reasoned arguments when arguing with quasi-religious fanatics is a waste of time.. ).

You can build a monetary system atop Bitcoin using convertibility. I don’t see what’s so crazy about that. I mean, right now I get paid in fiat controlled by septuagenarians that’s guaranteed to lose value unless I use it to buy assets they own. Plus they tax half. It’s a pretty bad deal for most people.
> It’s a pretty bad deal for most people.

Bitcoin is extremely deflationary. Imagine (or read a history book) a society in which almost all wealth/income is derived from land (a "deflationary" asset the value of which only increases as population grows and 95%+ of it is inherited).

Bitcoin is that just much worse because unlike in the case of land you don't need labor and significant capital investment to make any money from it you can just hoard it get richer without doing anything, which means:

- no economic growth (why invest in anything economically productive but risky when you can just get richer by doing nothing)

- eventually 90%+ of all wealth will become inherited and people who were born poor/disadvantage will remember these times as a lost utopia.

> It’s a pretty bad deal for most people.

Yes and even if bitcoin is a "better deal" for you it will be a significantly worse deal long term for the people who follow you..