[malfist]

But that is what the market will pay. No one goes onto the stock market and purchases orders above their ask

[singron]

The 409a isn't based on what the market will pay since private shares aren't on the stock market. It's a guess about what the market might pay, but since the shares aren't liquid, the guess can't be tested, so there is huge leeway to pick a favorable number.

[juancampa]

409a value is determined by an independent appraiser though, not the market. And in my (very limited) experience the actual difference can vary wildly, especially since the appraisal happens only once a year.