[havelhovel]

> The Israeli lobby is the most powerful

This is simply not true. If you look at spending since 2016, Israel is 10th, but didn't even break top 10 in 2023:

1. Liberia $183,313,959

2. Saudi Arabia $47,703,350

3. Japan $35,712,625

4. China $35,659,291

5. Hong Kong $30,717,811

6. Bahamas $26,763,000

7. Marshall Islands $26,579,703

8. United Arab Emirates $25,903,225

9. South Korea $24,050,739

10. Qatar $16,063,590

https://www.opensecrets.org/fara?cycle=2023

[stonogo]

I'm not entirely sure that spending and lobbying are synonymous.

[havelhovel]

I think that's a fair critique. Do you have any alternative metrics for evaluating the "most powerful" lobbies in the US? Because I'm curious how AIPAC and Israel get this reputation if it's not based on something objective like financial statements.

[stonogo]

It's tough, because there's a lot of overlap between groups that advocate for Jews and groups that advocate for Israel. The difficulty in conceiving metrics which can account for 'soft power', like influence via political and popular media, is (in my estimation) part of what makes people so attracted to bizarre consipiracy theories on the matter. Even trying to formulate such metrics (on any topic, not just Israeli affairs) quickly leads to sounding like one has arrived at the far side of weird. I don't have the right answers, but raw dollar input in the lobbying industry simply can't be the whole story; humans are more complex than "money in, opinions out".

[Qem]

> I think that's a fair critique. Do you have any alternative metrics for evaluating the "most powerful" lobbies in the US?

It appears to be the only one able to consistently get US citizens working for US employers in US soil fired for expressing opinions about a conflict halfway to the other side of the globe. If it were Russia or Ukraine lobbists getting US people fired, probably the FBI would be already indicting people for foreign interference in domestic matters.

[havelhovel]

> It appears to be the only one able to consistently get US citizens working for US employers in US soil fired

Can you provide some examples of Israeli lobbyists getting US citizens fired by US employers for expressing their opinions?

[stonogo]

Do you have any links to news stories about these firings? Curious to know more.

Also I think your analogy is a bit misplaced; I sure as hell hope the FBI responds differently to enemies than they do to allies.

[nikolay]

By "powerful" I meant being powerful enough to overcome public opinion. The vast majority of Americans are against our bombs being used to commit genocide, yet, our senile president is fully supporting turning Gaza into a parking lot.

[loeg]

I think you radically misunderstand the distribution of viewpoints of your fellow Americans (on Biden, on "genocide," and on selling our weapons to our military allies).

[nikolay]

There are polls and surveys. There's no war in Gaza - only a textbook example of genocide and this is coming directly from prominent American Jews.

[havelhovel]

I’m not sure why you’re pointing specifically to American Jews as the source of authority on a conflict in the Middle East, but in terms of polls and surveys:

“About a quarter [of Americans] (27%) say Israel is going too far in its current military operation, while about as many (25%) say it is taking the right approach; 16% of Americans say Israel is not going far enough militarily.” So more Americans support Israel’s campaign than do not.[1]

“81% of American Jews support Israel continuing its military operation to ‘recover all Israeli hostages and remove Hamas from power.’” Which implies the vast majority of “prominent American Jews” are not calling this genocide.[2]

And on this last point, this is hardly a “textbook example of genocide” when scholars of genocide contest this label[3], it is outright rejected by the US State Department[4], and casualties fall within the expectations of urban warfare experts[5]. The textbook example of genocide is the Holocaust.

All this hyperbole and generalization, just like we saw in Paul Graham’s tweet, makes it impossible to have productive discussions.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/08/americans-vi...

[2] https://jewishinsider.com/2023/12/poll-overwhelming-majority...

[3] https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-to-define-genocid... and https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-ex...

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-not-seeing-acts-genocide-ga...

[5] https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/opinions/israel-hamas-gaza-no...

[johnnyworker]

> I’m not sure why you’re pointing specifically to American Jews

They weren't. They were referring to prominent American Jews. They probably have specific statements in mind, by specific individuals but for the sake of brevity, didn't include them.

Also, I'd subtract the people who just lapped up all sorts of dehumanizing, sanctimonious propaganda, such as the stuff which even Joe Biden simply parroted: https://www.declassifieduk.org/beheaded-babies-how-uk-media-...

What some people think they are supporting and what they are supporting are vastly different.

As for the "military operations" and "urban warfare":

https://twitter.com/ireallyhateyou/status/174329670657626944...

https://twitter.com/muhammadshehad2/status/17317722618482647...

> For all those asking why there is no education Gaza. Oops, we've had a missile fall on them. That sucks. Ohhh, too bad. That's how you'll not be engineers anymore.

-- Israeli soldier standing before Al-Azhar university, https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1743411493813575711

https://www.972mag.com/israel-torture-camp-gaza-detainees/

And then there's the murder and attacks on civilian infrastructure in the West Bank, too. Or the bulldozing of a cemetary. I'll spare you posting dozens and dozens of pieces of proof each of which belie the claim of calling this a "war", much hiding the arbitrary, cruel attacks on civilians under the cover of "urban warfare".

As for "productive" discussions, for the purposes of ethnic cleansing and genocide, all that is required is a.) to continue sending arms b.) pretending this is a defensive "war".

Famine and disease will do the rest: https://jewishcurrents.org/epidemiological-war-on-gaza

And that is part of the openly espoused calculus.

> If we act strategically correctly, there will be immigration and we will live in the Gaza Strip. We will not allow a situation where 2 million people live there. If there are 100-200 thousand Arabs in Gaza, all the talk about the day after will be different.

-- Smotrich, https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1741347524693127398

Again, just one of many examples, more here

https://law4palestine.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Law-for...

And even that is just the tip of the iceberg.