| The chart is likely way off and extremely optimistic. Based on a few key metrics, the 2022 UN report data has pretty much been debunked, and China's population will roughly halve by 2060, much faster than 2100 (what the UN predicted). "The UN's projection, for instance, was based on the assumption that China's fertility rate would remain at above 1.7 children per woman. China had 12 million newborns last year, 25% lower than the UN's..." These researchers showed a halving by 2065 based on a the official fertility rate of 1.3 in 2020.
:https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2190995/chinas-population-... That's a big assumption to even believe the official birth rate, but it's much lower than the UN's number. In 2022 the official number plummeted even more: "released data indicating that last year’s fertility rate fell to 1.09 from 1.15 in 2021, below Japan’s rate for the same time period and only slightly higher than South Korea’s, which was estimated to be 0.8." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/16/china-fertilit... At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if China's population halves before 2060. I wonder how long it will take before the CCP, vowing control over any thing else, starts to implement a draconian multiple child policy (the exact opposite of a one child policy). |