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I believe Chris van Tulleken recently cited another paper in his book – "Ultra-Processed People": https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/physiol.000...

In it Herman Pontzer investigated the daily calorie burn of different lifestyles: hunter-gatherers, farmers, and office workers. Studying the Hadza tribe in Tanzania, he discovered that their calorie expenditure was surprisingly similar to that of Americans and Europeans.

Results suggest that increasing activity won't impact total energy expenditure. But without exercise, the energy spent by bodies on other things like stress, inflammation, etc.