[muzani]

My most pessimistic outlook is another 9/11 incident close to elections. It's the perfect moment - Americans are pissed with what's happening in the Middle East. They're pissed about their own quality of life and poverty. They're pissed about the poor handling of COVID and lockdowns. America's enemies may use it to provoke American policy to be more isolationist, much like it was pre-Pearl Harbor, because doubling down on the war on terror sounds like a bad idea.

It's also quite common for terrorists/rebels/etc to make moves close to elections because they expect it to be a time when govs are too tied down with campaigning to act decisively.