[notahacker]

> One should ask economists what a recession is, not how to predict one.

Most economists would agree. It's everyone else that says "well if you know so much about how shocks and policy changes cause recessions, why can't you tell me if there will be a recession in $country in Q2 2025?". And in economics, "skin in the game" means policy responses to avoid dire forecast outcomes (or lack of them when nobody expect oil prices to change or a major bank to collapse).

There's no shortage of opportunity to make money by beating everyone else at the prediction game, but the funds that have consistently profited from spotting the recessions ahead of everyone else don't exist any more than the always-right public expert forecasters.