[FirmwareBurner]

Housing prices (in economically productive regions) are completely decupled from the birth/death driven demographics.

I'm from a country with a demographics falling off the cliff, like Germany but worse, and just like Germany, housing prices (where jobs are) have went nowhere but up at a steep rate beyond wage growth, because housing is not a fixed pie for whom now less people are competing due to increased deaths vs births, because for a few decades now, it's no longer just people competing for housing against the other people, but piles of money competing against other piles of money, and the bigger piles are winning(aka investors).

If you expect housing to get cheaper because less babys will be born, you'll be in a rude awakening. If you want housing to go down you need to decouple it from investments because otherwise, all the levers will be pulled by the governments and banks to make sure that line only goes up regardless of demographics. "Too few babies are being born? No problem, we'll just market those houses to foreign investors. Problem solved. Line goes up now."

[laszlojamf]

I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything. In order for the speculation to pay off, somebody, at the end of the day has to pay for it to use it, otherwise it's just a ponzi scheme.

It might take a long time, but at some point the chickens will come home to roost. Or roast...

[FirmwareBurner]

>I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything.

Internal migration is a big thing even in countries with tanking birthrates. Entire villages are being emptied as old people die and their kids move to the cities for studies and work. The population overall is shrinking but housing demand in cities is still growing fast.

So yes, you can have a booming property market in a country with shrinking population. Nobody's gonna live in those forgotten villages with cheap empty housing but no schools, universities, hospitals, doctors, jobs and entertainment opportunities.

>at the end of the day has to pay for it to use it, otherwise it's just a ponzi scheme.

The housing market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[laszlojamf]

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against it XD but it doesn't follow that it will stay irrational _forever_

[FirmwareBurner]

Look at external migration from the last ~5 years then. Wars, povery, political extremism, climate change, etc. refugee waves will only continue so I'm pretty sure hosuing demand wil keep going up no matter how your local demographics tank.

Safe to assume housing market aint going to go bust anytime soon if you live anywhere in the first world cities.

[laszlojamf]

That's assuming western countries let refugees in. Right now, that's not on the political agenda. That might change if the housing market forces their hand but between xenophobia and greed, I'm not sure which one wins out in the end

[lifestyleguru]

> but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything

Have you seen the old city center of Prague in Czechia? or any old city center in any major city in Europe. These numbers only go up.

[CorrectHorseBat]

Because there's rising demand due to more people moving to cities and tourism. Also don't forget Europe's population is still growing despite a low birth rate.