[drc500free]

It seems reasonable to assume that's it's instead something like 10 simultaneous 2:1 battles, and you need to win a majority of them. That's very different odds than a single 2:1 battle.

He seems stuck on interpreting feedback through the lens of a linear-odds, one-shot model. The player feedback is that it shouldn't be linear, and there should be less randomness for larger numbers.

That all makes sense to me... and I suspect makes sense to him when he's not giving a talk for comedic effect.

[tedunangst]

What do you do when it's 15:7?

[Dylan16807]

Then you probably want to calculate the attacks between two big blobs of units without separating them. But the result is still going to be "something like 7 simultaneous 2:1 battles", and not at all like 30% odds of upset.