[laidoffamazon]

1) Biden will preside over a resilient and growing economy and a long list of legislative accomplishments, many of which were promised by Trump and were never enacted.

2) Abortion rights will be a big part of the election cycle and 60%+ of Americans oppose the Dobbs ruling. Trump has made it clear that he takes credit for Dobbs.

3) Polls (with the caveat that I believe they are flawed currently) suggest conviction switches a non-trivial number of Trump-friendly voters into the undecided or Biden column.

4) Overall poll toplines are currently flawed, many only use registered voter screens, and seem to overstate the number of 2020 non-voters that will vote in 2024. In reality overall turnout will be much lower in 2024. Additionally, about 50% of voters appear to be in denial that the matchup will be Biden vs. Trump.

5) Trump seems to think he has this in the bag [0] and will make even more extreme and reckless statements as the election cycle goes on.

[0]: https://politicalwire.com/2023/12/26/melania-trump-to-step-u...

Tilt Biden, I'd give it a 75% likelihood.