[tdullien]

I haven't checked in depth, but ... while the Fed funds rate has oscillated a bit ("noise") the curve for 10- or 30-year t-bills or mortgages is much smoother, and newly issued junk bonds will track those more than the Fed funds rate.

And I'd be surprised if in the period between 1980 and 2021 you could find a 10 year interval that didn't exhibit significantly lower rates at the end than at the beginning, and only a select few 5-year periods.

You seem to have the viewpoint that this had nothing to do with the historical performance of PE funds?

[JumpCrisscross]

> this had nothing to do with the historical performance of PE funds

It had a strong effect. But it’s far from dominating. Compounding PE’s performance woes are that fundraising is easier when the economy is strong. That is why there has been a tendency of the largest LBOs happening just before a downturn; the last cycle’s was Twitter.