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by kgwgk 907 days ago
> It's just weird that the end result depends on something assumed.

It would be weirder if the result didn’t depend on the things assumed.

I don’t know what kind of questions are you thinking of but outside of mathematics they are rarely fully specified.

If the answer changes enough depending on the additional assumptions to seem weird that is a sign that the question was not completely clear.

Of course Bayesians can also say that there is not enough information to provide an answer when that’s the case, just like they can make additional assumptions explicit to provide one.

1 comments

For me it looks a bit as if whether Schrodinger's cat is dead or alive depended on chosen set of coordinates.

I know it's not like that. But it's still weird that at the end of Bayesian analysis the best you can deliver is if-by-whiskey style deliberation.

I know it's still valuable. Just weird.

Note that there is no way to answer the question “what’s the probability of X conditional on the data observed” without taking into account “what was the probability of X before that observation”.

The thing with non-Bayesian analysis is that they don’t answer at all the question “what’s the probability of X conditional on the data observed”.