Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by NoPie 906 days ago
Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that. Intelligence tried to warn about that and most European governments ignored that.

The theory is that Russia has nothing to lose. Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO. If attacking the Baltic countries will not provoke immediate reaction from NATO, it would mean that NATO was empty promises.

Or maybe this warning is false. We have no way of knowing but it makes sense to be prepared for this eventuality.
1 comments
FirmwareBurner 906 days ago
>Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that.

If only there were prizes in war for trying instead of succeeding.

>Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO.

It's much easier to force NATO/EU breakdown through soft means like political destabilization. Direct military attacks only cause the blocks to strengthen: see the ascension of Sweden and Finland after the attack.

link
NoPie 906 days ago
Is it? Everybody is an expert online. My trust in those experts is 0.
link
FirmwareBurner 906 days ago
You don't need to be an expert. Just look at what happened in Ukraine. Russia's results, or lack thereof speak for themselves.
link
NoPie 899 days ago
The important conclusion here is that Russia tried to influence the Baltic States by political destabilization (they had plans for Russia as a second official language, reducing importance of NATO) and it failed.

Russia seemed to have more success in Ukraine but ultimately they also failed when Ukraine appeared moving towards the West. That's why Russia ultimately decided to start a military operation, i.e., a war.

Of course, you could think that Russia would never dare to start a war with a NATO countries. Definitely the risk is lower. But we didn't believe it would start a war in Ukraine either. It is possible that any country can experience some kind of political destabilization (even without meddling by Russia) and they Russia could use the opportunity. So, it is important to be ready.

link
NoPie 906 days ago
Ukraine and Baltic countries are not the same. This comparison is false.

No wonder the whole world went mad and demanded vaccine mandates for vaccine that does not even prevent the spread of infection. Too much reliance on “experts” that repeat mindlessly “vaccines good” instead of looking into details of a particular vaccine.

link