[agentcoops]

Yes, this is the most important point and I think somehow least present in even discussions here: the technical question of who produces the best/cheapest LLM/future architecture is considerably less important than who, if anyone, creates a fundamentally new and dominant consumer experience built on AI. Most of the existing players (Google, Meta) would of course prefer that nobody produces such a newly dominant paradigm of computation for end-users since it would greatly reduce their relevance and subsequently revenues. Right now, ChatGPT is the only real contender in this space. However, I think you’re correct that it’s actually Apple who is most likely to be the next who attempts such a paradigm shift. Far too early to bet, but let’s say I wouldn’t be surprised if in five years we end up in a world in which Apple has the consumer monopoly and Microsoft the business monopoly, with Google and Meta falling into irrelevance.

[gremlinsinc]

I think Microsoft is going to eat openai, I mean the company is practically half in and out of Microsoft's mouth. Bing will likely add more and more features that are native to chatGPT, Google I think will eventually get in the game, Facebook is actually doing better than Google, especially for open source models which is buoying the smaller researchers and developers.

In the end one company will build AGI or super AGI that can do the function of any existing software even games, with any interface even VR, or no interface at all - just return deliverables like a tax return. The evolution might be, give me an easier but similar QuickBooks UI for accounting to just do my taxes, the company who gets here first could essentially put all other software companies out of business, especially SaaS businesses.

The first company to get there will basically be a corporate singularity and no other company will be able to catch up to them.