Always a divide between people in these threads who assign pure genius as the sole reason for success and those who live in reality and accept that you also need allot of luck and cash on the way.
Yeah. I can absolutely believe that NVIDIA saw the potential for GPUs (and associated software) that went beyond hardcore gaming nerds building their own PCs. But HPC generally was not a very profitable market for most vendors and I don't really believe that crypto and LLMs as they have played out to date was especially foreseeable at a detailed level.
I think forum post quality probably is well in decline when posters start making popular meta posts about how people with their view are in reality and people without are delusional.
It was an observation of how every thread like this plays out not a “popular meta post”. I wouldn’t go as far as to say delusional I was more going for it’s naive to assign success purely to genius in the same way it’s naive to attribute a single cause or solution to climate change. In fact I think even that’s generous given that’s a future prediction that was not a guess or a gamble. Perhaps a better example would be for me to write a post about a massive successful stock trade or crypto where A) I had the cash to do it and B) things I gambled might happen went even better than I thought. There would be people assigning all the success to me when likely there were other similar plays I made that I lost big on as well as plenty of other people who saw it but simply didn’t have the means or timing to make it happen. So yes I think it’s naive to assign this and most to purely genius. You need a little luck and cash in reality on the way.