[adleyjulian]

Some environmental advocates' rhetoric focused on the lower probability but much higher damage outcomes, e.g. Gore's Inconvenient Truth. Language like "up to 20 feet" etc to focus on the higher range.

A doctor could say an infection has a chance of death if left untreated. If the person lives they'd say the doctor was "wrong", and "the doctor gave me a month to live."

At this point most probable estimates are so bad it's besides the point, but I'd think the lower odds yet especially cataclysmic projections are worth attention.

[cassepipe]

Ok let's go down the metaphor then : If the doctor tells you have one month to live because of lung cancer and it turns out you had actually two years ahead of you, I'd agree it's not the same but it seems that the information about the possibility for the end of it all for you should be the center of your attention and not whether you could have kept smoking another year, darn it.