In the few cases I’ve seen someone expend effort on it, it was trivial. Most people have terrible opsec. Even if you do, if you transact with someone who doesn’t (or who will deanonymise you for shockingly-trivial compensation), you’re partly compromised.
I think most people using crypto for illegal purposes will mainly be transacting with people that don't know their identity, so that is not a deanonymising risk.
It's true that people sometimes get caught via chainalysis/etc., but I think there is a lot of sampling bias here. Someone who isn't an idiot and washes their funds through dodgy asian exchanges/privacy coins is probably quite safe, even compared to using cash.
> think most people using crypto for illegal purposes will mainly be transacting with people that don't know their identity, so that is not a deanonymising risk
Demonstrably untrue. Also, many people using crypto are unknowingly commiting crimes. They're not the smartest bunch. Between taxes and reporting requirements, you can usually nail a crypto user with less than $1k PI time.
In the few cases I’ve seen someone expend effort on it, it was trivial. Most people have terrible opsec. Even if you do, if you transact with someone who doesn’t (or who will deanonymise you for shockingly-trivial compensation), you’re partly compromised.