[wolverine876]

I'm not sure about that. An invasion of Iran could cause significant budgetary and institutional harm, as well as destroying trust in the US's leadership position in the world and in the rules-based international order on which international US power depends.

Iran would be the most powerful foe since WWII (perhaps not counting China's involvement in the Korean War, but afaik China's only power then was masses of soldiers). They are more wealthy, more populous, and more politically, economically, and militarily capable than Iraq and Afghanistan combined - possibly more than all foes since WWII combined. Geographically, they are mostly mountains, especially along their coast [0]. They have been preparing for generations to fight off the US.

After Vietnam the US military was a mess for many years, arguably until the Gulf War. Also, weakness creates a negative reinforcement loop: When enemies and competitors see the US weakened or just consumed with a problem, they will make moves that worsen the US's situation.

(Just look at this map of Iranian topography:)

[0] https://www.glimpsefromtheglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/...

[pm90]

Invasion isn’t required. The current regime has managed to survive and make strategic gains via proxies to emerge as a regional power despite crippling sanctions for decades. They are supplying drones to Russians. If they formalize a military-economic bloc with Russia and China, it would be a far more dangerous (but likely) outcome.

[nradov]

There won't be any invasion. No one has any appetite for that.

If a conflict with Iran comes it will be something like Operation Praying Mantis again plus strikes against key economic targets such as oil refineries. The Iranian navy and air force are largely defenseless against stand-off strikes. They would still be able to cause trouble by sponsoring terrorist groups, but all of their forces capable of projecting regional conventional power could be wrecked in a few weeks of sustained strikes.

(I am not suggesting that this should be done. Obviously everyone should look for ways to deescalate the situation.)

[InCityDreams]

>They would still be able to cause trouble by sponsoring terrorist groups,

The US country hasn't experienced 'real terrorism' (IRA, Baader Meinhoff, Red Brigade etc), especially on a sustained scale. It would indeed be a terrible thing for just a few lone wolves to pop over the border. Being such a vast continent the damage could be horrifying, not least of all for brown people. (Big nod to George Carlin).

[sudosysgen]

There is no Iranian navy or air force to speak of. It's an irrelevant force. Iran projects power using proxies and using missiles, none of which are easily disabled by stand-off strikes.