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It is that analysis in specific that I object too. Its not obvious energy will increase the way you describe; as ive written elsewhere, the factors involved in current population/birth declines are not related to environmental carrying capacity, they are more closely related to the global monetary system and central planning, and it could have a relationship to high levels of economic development. Existing political issues aside, an entire industry can die off and we can still call that growth, as we do when its replaced by something that creates more value at a lower cost, like the beginning of the automotive industry ending the reign of horses. We dont know if quantum computers will ever be realized for practical purposes, if they are then maybe we can unlock all the processing power anyone could ever need with much lower power consumption, or maybe we dont but computation simply becomes a less pressing matter after we reach some unknown level of technology (ie. If you are trying to capture a black hole to use as an energy source, you really might only need the computational power of a ti-86. There is also, in my observation, a type of material ladder that bends ever towards the crystalization (forgive the terminology) of chemicals. Where raw wood rots in weeks to months, treated lumber can last a decade, vinyl can last 2-3, steel for 100+, who knows what comes next? These materials are likely to require lots of energy to create, but require less over their lifespan. There is a similar ladder in energy, starting with humans burning poop and currently sitting somewhere between nuclear and natural gas, where each step up on the ladder requires greater capital investment but produces less pollution and has lower lifetime costs, where nuclear is like the diamond of energy, huge investment to create something that will last this side of forever. |