[tivert]

> We definitely do, as evidenced by all the jobs that have been automated over the past 100 years and people who are currently employed.

No, we don't. That's the hand-waving hope I'm talking about: expecting past performance to guarantee future success.

All of those previous waves of automation involved pretty limited technologies. AI has the potential to be quite different. For instance, if you have an AGI with average human intelligence, and robots doing manual labor, what jobs are all the average-intelligence humans supposed to do? Door-to-door sales to other door-to-door salesmen? If the technology lives up to the hype, their options may be "die homeless" to the more optimistic "be warehoused at minimum cost until natural death."