[bcrescimanno]

Don't forget that there's a whole segment of these guys who are basically paid to get it wrong--being the one guy who says, "this obvious winner is going to fail" attracts a lot of eyeballs.

Remember, being a pundit isn't about being correct; it's about getting people reading what you write.

[adrianonantua]

Also, in the remote case he gets to be right, he will get known as the wise told-you-so guy.