[karaterobot]

Not an expert, but have wondered the same thing. From what I've read, it comes down to optimism and extrapolation from current trends. Both of these have problems of course, but what else can you do? My working hypothesis is that we'll reach a practical limit on the quality of what we can get from the current class of models, and to extend beyond that would require a new approach, rather than just more data and more horsepower. The new breakthrough would have to be as significant as the last, but would be more likely to happen in a short time span because there is so much more activity in AI research now than even 5 years ago. Again, I'm a dummy about this stuff, not claiming more than that.