[iruoy]

I've been using meteoblue for a while now and they tell you how sure they are of their predictions. Right now I can see that they rate their predictability as medium for tomorrow, but high for the day after.

https://content.meteoblue.com/en/research-education/specific...

[kqr]

I'll give you one better. The ECMWF publishes their probabilistic ensemble forecasts with boxplots for numeric probabilities: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_...

They also have one for precipitation type distribution: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram...