[gjsman-1000]

There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible):

It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the popularity of their struggling president.

Thoughts?

(Edit: For those questioning how this would improve the prime minister's or president's approval, few things improve the popularity of a president, or a prime minister, than a declaration of war following a catastrophic event. Bush reached 86% popular support after 9/11.)

[BurningFrog]

Confusing the Israeli president and prime minister shows the level of insight here.

[gjsman-1000]

I'm repeating a theory I've heard that sounds interesting, that I'd like more evidence to support or deny, and slipped on a detail. You can see from my other comments I am aware that he is the prime minister and apologize for the oversight.

[lm28469]

> I'm repeating a theory I've heard that sounds interesting

Have you heard about the one that says the earth is flat, or even hollow ? Quite interesting isn't it ?

[zardo]

There's no way they let the October 7th that actually happened go off on purpose. They didn't need to take that much of a hit to justify invading a Gaza, and it made them look bad.

Which would leave open the possiblity that they "let it happen" thinking the "it" was something much less substantial, but the motive doesn't really make sense to me, because they didn't need to take a hit at all. Just an accusation that Hamas was planning an attack would have been sufficient pretext.

[DarknessFalls]

Israel never could have launched this extensive a military campaign with international support on the basis of an intelligence report from Egypt, Mossad or otherwise. People would say that any time someone wanted to invade a country without provocation, they could just accuse the other side of wanting to attack. It's also possible that Netanyahu knew of a planned attack but not of the severity. Netanyahu is a hawkish zealot, obsessed with reclaiming the West Bank. It's not hard to imagine an aging political leader wanting to take over the settlement as part of his legacy.

[sudosysgen]

I don't think that there is some kind of conspiracy theory here, but there is no reason you'd need an invasion to stop the attack. Simply refraining from moving soldiers outside the Gaza border and into the West Bank would have been sufficient. It was 3000 thousand terrorists with light weapons, it wouldn't have been difficult to stop if Netanyahu hadn't sent so much of the IDF to terrorize civilians in the West Bank and steal their land.

[Adverblessly]

Bibi and a few other far right leaders are on record previously saying that Hamas is an asset, since it divides the Palestinians in Gaza from those in Yehuda and Shomron. In addition to that, it is my personal opinion that Bibi also considered them an asset for elections so that he has someone to oppose and can continually promise to "end Hamas" without ever actually doing it.

That said, if this was an intentional move by Bibi, it backfired severely since his support dropped drastically as a result of the attack (and how poorly he continues to handle it). I've heard there's quite a bit of internal opposition in his party in spite of the fact that most politicians there are just Bibi's bootlickers and that without him the party will likely lose a ton of votes.

Given that he is an incredibly gifted politician, it seems unlikely to me that he made the mistake of thinking that an attack will be good for him, so I find the conspiracy theory to be unlikely.

> as an excuse to raid Gaza

And to answer this one specifically, I don't think Bibi wanted an excuse to raid Gaza since it seems to me like what he wants most is just to continue the current status-quo where peace is impossible. It is possible that others in his current far-right extremist government were looking for such an excuse, but no chance that they would actually get to make that decision.

[lm28469]

> as well as improve the popularity of their struggling president.

How does that work ? He's at a record low approval, Israelis want a culprit and he's the default one

[gruez]

>or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the popularity of their struggling president.

If that was the goal, it massively backfired

[totetsu]

It could be to improve popularity yes, or it could have something to do with a goal to ethnically cleanse the country..

[rowanseymour]

> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack

This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.

[xdennis]

They're not refugees. They left 70 years ago. If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state.

For people who don't know, UNRWA says Palestinian refugees are the only ones who are defined as eternal. All children, including adopted (!), of Palestinian refugees are Palestinian refugees, and so on to eternity. [1]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Definition_of_refugee

[sudosysgen]

Palestinian refugees have to stay refugees because they are stateless. Stateless refugees, unless they can find some other citizenship and therefore no longer are just Palestinian - and they often can't, must remain refugees for eternity. Since children normally inherit citizenship, that goes for their children too, until they are something other than Palestinian, nationality-wise.

And they didn't "leave". They were ethnically cleansed.

[tguvot]

per unrwa, palestinians that have citizenship of whatever other country still remain listed as refugees.

[rowanseymour]

> Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state.

Ignoring the obvious racism here, in what sense is Israel a successful middle eastern state? It regularly attacks its neighbouring countries. It keeps 2.3 million people in a ghetto and millions others in bantustans in the West Bank. It's huge source of instability in that region and is dependent diplomatically, economically and militarily on the US.

[weregiraffe]

> It regularly attacks its neighbouring countries.

That's a problem for neighbouring countries, not Israel. USA also regularly attacks... whoever she wishes, really.

> It keeps 2.3 million people in a ghetto and millions others in bantustans in the West Bank

Also not Israel's problem.

>It's huge source of instability in that region

Islamic fundamentalism is a huge source of instability in that region.

> It's huge source of instability in that region and is dependent diplomatically, economically and militarily on the US.

Your ignorance is amazing.

[giraffe_lady]

> If Israel left them back, Israel would devolve into another failed middle eastern state.

If I let the man out of the cage in my attic my home life is going to be a lot worse. He's still a caged man though.

[gjsman-1000]

It might not be a state, but it is a "polity" (politically identifiable identity).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip

Also, it has been de facto ruled by Hamas since (edit: 2007) despite formally being under the control of the Palestinian Authority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip

[rowanseymour]

Ok.. but "Gaza" did not collectively plan anything and it still functions as a concentration camp even if it has internal governance.

[asgonio]

We know that the Bush administration faked evidence of WMDs in Iraq, starting a war that ultimately killed thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians. It is not on its face preposterous that Netanyahu would have his own people slaughtered as part of some game.

Netanyahu has long supported Hamas, both politically and financially. At a Likud meeting in 2019, he said "Those who want to thwart the possibility of a Palestinian state should support the strengthening of Hamas and the transfer of money to Hamas. This is part of our strategy." He was entirely willing to support those who killed Israelis if he thought it was useful to him.

(The story was originally from Haaretz, but that's paywalled.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/world/middleeast/peace-ac...

But if he welcomed this attack, it backfired dramatically and predictably. I can't see that anyone could think it would help Netanyahu politically. If the goal were to brutalize the people of Gaza, perhaps, but Israel hasn't generally needed much pretext to brutalize the people of Gaza.

He could just be desperate. He is looking at prison time for corruption, after all.

[scantis]

Politicians failing to read the writing on the wall, then overcorrecting and acting devoid of all humanity and only for selfish reasons is the norm, sadly. What the conspiracy theory is doing, is proposing this to be a clever move, when selfishness and stupidity also suffice as explanation.

[gjsman-1000]

> selfishness and stupidity also suffice as explanation

The problem though is that almost all societies, before us, considered stupidity to not be an excuse for any crime, for similar reasons to "Ignorance of the law is no excuse." This was because, as another principle I'm forgetting the name of points out, stupidity is indistinguishable from competently-executed malice. If competently-executed malice is always explained away as stupidity, there's no such thing as malice. (The only obvious exception, of course, being manifest insanity.)

[scantis]

Politicians conveniently suffer from amnesia, when pressed on some issues, concerning money, who they have met or what was shared with them. That is to say stupidity works as an excuse, even though we don't like it.

"Competently-executed" is taking it too far. Look at the mess, it's all childish and cruel.

There is another one concerning stupidity. It is that stupidity and love can not be differentiated from the outside. Not knowing if you are in love or just stupid, is in essence a heartbreak.

Imagine sending help in form of water, food or school equipment to children in a warzone being equated to aiding terrorism.

[xdennis]

The idea that they let it happen is insane. Oct 7 is the biggest Jewish disaster since the Holocaust. Who would want that on his resume?

This is a classical conspiracy theory. Things can't just fall through the cracks, it's always someone behind the scenes directing things.

[borissk]

Both Bibi and Hamas leaders are corrupted war criminals, that can only gain political dividends if the conflict escalates and will go to jail if it gets peacefully resolved.