[yieldcrv]

so, when this happened on 9/11 the actual investigation found a stock picking newsletter that had simply called the stock sector for technical analysis reasons

this paper only compares volume to prior campaigns in Israel, and draws a conclusions based on that

additionally it has the bias of saying these are “gaps in enforcement of insider trading laws”, seemingly not understanding that an insider trading law would not cover things occurring outside of a company. nor should it.

its short selling of an ETF over a geopolitical event

so its just as likely any random stock picking newsletter could have called it. there’s even a guy on reddit that says Gaza attacks are based on the moon phase and tried to warn Israel, he happened to be not-inaccurate this time but its totally based on correlations only

[Avicebron]

I believe it actually says "gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading.", then later goes on to say

" But as its name suggests, the U.S. law of insider trading is a poor fit for trading patterns of the kind we document here." (page 38).

So it does seem to understand that insider trading doesn't apply to the data here. I think "informed trading" meaning prior knowledge (not insider company trading) is the relevant point here.

[yieldcrv]

they buried the lede quite far there.

yes, they are trying to shift opinions for this stretch of a case and masquerading it as academic. this is an enthusiast blog post at best, should have just posted it on Seeking Alpha or even just Medium

its good entertainment, they should have left a patreon link at the bottom

[apercu]

Even if not correlated, this is diabolically genius for all state sponsors and financiers of terrorism.

[htrp]

Not sure if it's diabolical genius, it was literally the opening plot point of the bond film Casino Royale

[jondwillis]

Bond films are notorious for never having what could be colloquially referred to as some kind of diabolical genius involved in the plot.

[peterleiser]

Maybe so, but they definitely feature Evil Lair fetishists.

[yieldcrv]

it’s not, the instruction manual exists for decades if you like conspiracies.