[ethanbond]

The decreased purchasing power at the high end 1) is a consequence of taxes, not UBI itself, and 2) wouldn’t push prices down for lower income housing writ large. At the absolute margins, a high-income earner who is being taxed into lower-income housing is increasing competition among tenants for the same low-income housing, which will increase those prices.

If you want to tax high-income people into lower-income housing then just increase their taxes. What does UBI have to do with any of that?

It’s not possible to “isolate the variable” in any economic study ever, so I suppose both of us will have to argue from conjecture. My conjecture, as a landlord, is that if incomes go up in my market, that is unambiguous signal that I can increase my prices. Your conjecture is “you won’t be able to,” but I already know I’m able to. That is how I’ve already set the price I charge.

The best possible news for me, an absentee landlord, is a big company with high salaries opening an office nearby. Same as every other landlord.

[danenania]

> is a consequence of taxes, not UBI itself

A distinction without a difference imo. My point is that how you pay for it is what determines the impact on prices, but I think we’re basically rehashing demand-side vs. supply-side economics at this point.

> I already know I’m able to

You don’t decide the market rate by yourself. And I don’t think you’re properly accounting for how UBI impacts this in aggregate.

[ethanbond]

No, how you pay for it doesn't change UBI's effect on pricing. UBI has exactly the effect I'm describing. Separately, a tax scheme may have a different, countervailing effect, regardless of whether or not it's related to UBI. That countervailing effect could arguably overcome UBI's positive pressure on prices, but it's a totally separate effect from a separate policy and even still your explanation of the mechanism looks totally incoherent.

Please explain how taxing high-income people into low-income housing doesn't increase the prices of traditionally low-income housing.

[danenania]

"No, how you pay for it doesn't change UBI's effect on pricing."

I'd disagree as I think it obviously does. I doubt any economist would agree with this statement.

You're saying I'm "incoherent", but from my perspective all you've done in this conversation is confidently assert your conclusions. You're clearly very certain of your beliefs, but that's not going to convince anyone (if you care about that at all). I'm willing to reconsider my views if someone makes a compelling argument, but I haven't found yours to be convincing fwiw.

[ethanbond]

I think any economist would be able to separate the policy in question (UBI, a stipend paid directly to people) from the funding of that policy (potentially a high marginal tax rate, potentially increase in money supply -- two options you yourself identified, but there are infinite more ways to do it).

All of the downward pressure on housing prices you have theorized are coming from (one of) the proposed funding methods, not UBI. UBI doesn't have to be funded in this way, so it should be self-evident that this pressure isn't coming from UBI itself. You would get the same (alleged) effect that you're mentioning if you don't do UBI at all and instead just more steeply increase marginal tax rates. You would not get that effect at all if you implement UBI but fund it by a method other than steep marginal tax rates. So the proposed effect is coming from the tax scheme, not from UBI.

I think you're clearly not willing to reconsider your views, which frankly I get since UBI should be a really great idea. And if it would work, I would fully support it (in fact I used to). But empirical evidence of similar policies getting baked into land rent is apparently outright dismissible, and there's apparently no need for evidence of your claim that higher marginal tax rates at the top end reduce rents at the low end?

What would convince you otherwise?

[danenania]

Honestly I think you're being very pedantic about this. How it's paid for is a crucial aspect of UBI. It would literally be the largest and most expensive government program ever enacted and you don't think it makes any difference how those trillions of dollars are raised? Come on. There's no such thing as UBI independent of the funding for UBI and there are not "infinite" ways for a government to raise trillions of dollars. In the real world, there are two: taxes or the central bank.

I'm not actually convinced that UBI is a great idea. I lean towards supporting it but I also have reservations. The numbers involved are staggering and there would clearly be some major negative consequences. I think the benefits of unlocking so much human potential and defending against social instability created by mass AI job displacement probably outweigh those, but I'm open to counterarguments.

That said, your arguments here are just way too simplistic imo. They only work if you ignore or dismiss half the equation. Instead of addressing the argument that taxation has a very different impact on prices (including rents) than money supply expansion, you are playing word games to say "oh but that's not part of UBI".

[ethanbond]

I can see how this is opaque and totally inscrutable if one is inclined to just mix all the terms of the equation together, dismiss empirical evidence of specific components, and reflexively dismiss arguments for being "too simplistic."

Once again, I'm not ignoring or dismissing half the equation. I'm asking you to explain how the "tax" half works to yield the effect you're describing.