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by martin8412 930 days ago
Vaporware, just like much of what Musk talks about.
3 comments

Reusable rockets, electric cars, solar panels...

What would you say grants you the standing to opine here?

All of his other false or misleading statements over the last 10 years.
When we've dealt with the oil companies, the chemical manufacturers dumping PFAS into our kids, and the industrial war machine, maybe then we can start complaining about the guy biting off more than he can chew trying to be constructive.

Until then, all of you sound vicious, bitter, and hypocritical.

We are perfectly capable of having issues with all of those as well. I can still ask for a speedbump on my street while also voicing concern with military postering… Crazy I know! Musk passed ‘guy biting off more than he chew’ when he started accusing heroes of being pedophiles.
I'm fairly certain all of those existed prior to Musk's suggestion of them.
He delivered on them though right? Also reusable rockets didn’t exist?
John Carmack on a shoestring budget nearly got this working at Armadillo. If he had more money and time he would've had it working a half decade before SpaceX.
"Nearly" and "if he had more money and time" is "no".

And given how much faster SpaceX has been than anyone else, I can only believe this "could've, would've" in form of the slightly longer hypothetical "if only Carmack hired all the rocket scientists (and raised all the money to give them freedom to go fast) before Musk got there".

Got it, so no then right.

I love Carmack, but having an idea for something is infinitely easier than actually successfully executing on it, especially as incredibly successfully as SpaceX.

Rocketry involves building a lot of prototypes and blowing up a lot of things when mistakes happen.

Carmack did execute, they had a working rocket, and with time they could've solved the software issues, but they didn't have the funding to blow up dozens of prototypes.

Carmack drove that project, he wrote code, he built rocket engines himself, he ran missions.

Elon, notably, doesn't do any of that. He just had more money, or was willing to commit more money, to seeing it through. For Carmack it was more of a fun diversion (the X Prize) than a business he wanted to build.

The Nazis nearly invented the atomic bomb.
The McDonnell Douglas DC-X?
Never worked. Project canceled.
You’re also wrong
Which one of those didn't?
Reusable rockets. Tesla popularized EVs
Most of those things have happened actually, but the website makes it seems that they didn't. It just lists everything Elon has said, but doesn't track if they happened or not. This is a completely pointless website.
Actually they're in the middle of production at TSMC. They have 10,000 units on order, to be delivered "in the coming year".
What that he has talked about been vaporware?
That Telsa owners can use their cars to make money while they are working as robo taxis -let's just say he vastly underestimates effort it takes to make progress - FSD is not there yet.
Vaporware assumes it will never happen. Is that the case you think or is it that he was vastly over optimistic? Very likely the latter.
FSD is currently in the quantum valley of product development: it is both vaporware and a shipping product.
The shipping product is FSD by name only. Actual automomy anywhere near the levels that has been promised to arrive "by the end of this year" for years will surely arrive by the end of this year.
Vaporware makes no assumptions about the future. Everything is vaporware until it isn’t.
They will get there at some acceptable point but not with the tech in current Tesla's - the current compute module will need to be replaced - think they showed off HW 4 in lieu of HW 3.

Sucks to be if you paid the early bird fee for it.

Agreed, feel bad for anyone that did that. Hopefully lessons learned on not making huge purchases based on some revolutionary future tech that isn’t fully baked yet / all problems solved for. Definitely an area I would never want to be an early adopter in.
Hmm that website could be really interesting if it clearly didn’t try being misleading, e.g. a statement about something being in development but not yet out isn’t a promise that it will be out now. Really silly.

Also if it didn’t exclude everything that has been delivered. That long list would be interesting to see as well.