[kyle_grove]

I’m pretty confident (close to the 95% level) they will abandon the public charity structure, but throughout this saga, I have been baffled by the discourse’s willingness to handwave away OpenAI’s peculiar legal structure as irrelevant to these events.

[tempestn]

Within a few months? I don't think it should be possible to be 95% confident of that without inside info. As you said, many unexpected things have happened already. IMO that should bring the most confident predictions down to the 80-85% level at most.