[taftster]

It might not yield results, in the way you've correctly described. But the stock market is going to like this opportunity to "steal" the founders / stakeholders in OpenAI "For Free". The money Microsoft pays them is just petty cash compared to the perceived value of getting this talent on board.

Let's say that these folks leave in a year, as you suggest. So what? Microsoft gets to ride this wave even further. If there's a chance they get some meaningful benefit, even better.

And, I'm not sure, but the "new" Microsoft might be able to actually keep their newly acquired talent. Imagine if Microsoft is able to cater to them like a "startup" would, but then be backed with real money (e.g. not VC money) Companies that can support a "startup culture" inside of the traditional business, this really can create some powerful outcomes. Think of Apple on many occasions, for example.

So who knows. I doubt the old (cough Ballmer) Microsoft could pull this off. And maybe there's just too much Softy still in there, but I tend to think that maybe the Nadella Microsoft might have a chance and can benefit from this OpenAI shakeup.