[dereg]

Market expectations do price shares. These expectations can be assumptions about growth, dividend payouts, and such. You're claiming that there is no random walk component, which there clearly is. There is no such thing as paying an amount "in confidence of ending up with a profit" in the world of equities investment — that's an absurd statement and not a means for rational valuation. You can mitigate your portfolio risk but you will never eliminate systematic risk.