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I’m pretty sure it’s catastrophically bad. OpenAI’s deal with Microsoft happened when ChatGPT took off at insane rates and OpenAI experienced scaling troubles. There was literally no one except a handful of cloud operators—Google, Amazon, Microsoft, etc. who could provide enough GPUs to keep things running. Microsoft basically stepped in and said “we’ll provide the GPUs and pay the hosting bill for half the profits.” OpenAI now runs everything, from ChatGPT inference to GitHub copilot to GPT-5 training on Azure GPU instances.

If Satya is as pissed as it sounds like he is, and if Ilya et al double down on their madness, Microsoft could back out and shut that all off tomorrow. OpenAI would be dead in the water, with no running product and no path to recovery.